The Mariners have headed to Canada to tackle Blue Jays on the Rogers Centre. A ballpark famend for its raucous crowds, which could possibly be intimidating to a visiting workforce short on postseason experience. Complicating issues for Servais’ crew, Toronto boasts a potent offense and a pair of formidable beginning pitchers – Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

Regardless of these hurdles, all will not be misplaced for the Mariners – removed from it. This workforce is able to taking two of three from the Blue Jays, even in a hostile atmosphere. It received’t be straightforward, however actually doable.

All of the Mariners have to do is extra of what they’ve been doing all season.

Seattle completed the season with a 9.7% stroll price, second finest within the majors behind the Yankees (10.1%). Persevering with to earn free passes will likely be central to a profitable October. Sadly, the workforce chief in walks (Jesse Winker) went to the 10-day IL through the closing week of the season as did Sam Haggerty.

Nonetheless, different Mariners have demonstrated a penchant for reaching base by way of the stroll.

Stroll Charges of Common M’s
Jesse Winker – 15.4%
Dylan Moore – 13.3%
Carlos Santana – 11.9%
Eugenio Suárez – 11.6%
J.P. Crawford – 11.3%
Cal Raleigh – 9.2%
Sam Haggerty – 9.0%
MLB BB Charge – 8.2%
Mitch Haniger – 8.1%
Adam Frazier – 7.6%
Julio Rodríguez – 7.1%
Abraham Toro – 6.3%
Ty France – 5.7%

It’s value noting Jarred Kelenic (8.8%) and Luis Torrens (7.2%) have additionally been taking walks over the past month. Sure, their numbers are based mostly on small samples. Nonetheless, it’s a constructive growth we shouldn’t overlook on the most important a part of the baseball yr.

Having mentioned all that, Blue Jays pitching has been extraordinarily stingy at delving out passes to first base with the third lowest stroll price (7%) in MLB. On that notice, Toronto’s Recreation 1 starter, Manoah, has a 6.5% stroll price. Moreover, Gausman (3.9%) is third finest amongst pitchers certified for the ERA title.

Because the season progressed, the lengthy ball grew to become more and more essential to the Mariners’ offense. Since August 1, the workforce clobbered probably the most dwelling runs (86) in MLB. Simply how important did the house run turn out to be for Seattle’s run manufacturing effort?

Dwelling runs accounted for 46.7% of the workforce’s runs batted in (RBI) this season – the fifth highest HR/RBI price within the majors.

Highest HR/RBI% in 2022
NYY – 52.1%
MIL – 49.5%
LAA – 47.3%
ATL – 47.1%
SEA – 46.7%
HOU – 46%
PIT – 43.4%
TEX – 43.1%
TOR – 42.9%
MIN – 42.5%

MLB common HR/RBI% = 40.2%

Regardless of their improved proficiency at clubbing dingers, the Mariners solely had a barely better-than-average .400 SLG because the starting of August. The explanation, Seattle hit the fewest singles (273) and doubles (71) in MLB throughout this timeframe.

The Blue Jays received’t make it straightforward for the Mariners to proceed their dwelling run binge into the postseason. Toronto’s 1.12 HR/9 is barely worse than the MLB common (1.09). Nonetheless, Manoah (.73) and Gausman (.79) are top-15 amongst certified pitchers.

When it mattered most, the beginning rotation stepped as much as propel the membership’s postseason push. Amongst 118 pitchers dealing with 100-plus batters in September/October, three Mariners possessed a top-50 xwOBA –Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby – with Marco Gonzales falling simply exterior the top-50 mark.

Anticipated Weighted On-Base Common (xwOBA) makes use of high quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle) to find out what ought to’ve occurred to batted balls. A key benefit to xwOBA is protection (good or dangerous) doesn’t affect it. This provides us a more true sense of how a hitter or pitcher is performing. 

Sept/Oct xwOBA
Logan Gilbert – .284 (thirty seventh in MLB)
Luis Castillo – .285 (thirty ninth)
George Kirby – .296 (forty ninth)
Marco Gonzales – .298 (52nd)
MLB common SP xwOBA = .309
Robbie Ray – .323 (74th)

After pitching seven innings within the common season finale, Gonzales is unlikely to be a part of the roster within the Wild Card spherical. To this point, Servais has introduced Castillo as his Recreation 1 starter leaving Robbie Ray, Gilbert, and Kirby as candidates for the following two video games in Toronto. That’s a very good downside for a supervisor to have heading right into a postseason sequence.

A few of you’re most likely taking a look at Ray’s .323 xwOBA and wish no a part of the southpaw pitching in Seattle’s first postseason sequence in 20 years. Particularly in opposition to a right-handed heavy Toronto lineup. That mentioned, Ray initiatives to start out Recreation 2.

For these involved about Ray’s latest performances, I recommend contemplating how postseason video games are managed on this period. Relationship again to 2019, there have been 254 postseason video games. The typical outing by beginning pitchers lasted 4.1 innings. Granted, openers have been used on a number of events. However that doesn’t considerably have an effect on the general size of time starters have been sticking round within the playoffs.

SP Postseason Workload (2019-21)
6+ inning – 74
5-5.2 inning – 56
4-4.2 innings – 47
Sub-4 innings – 77

Principally, it’s as much as Ray to ship outcomes when he takes the mound for the Mariners. If the 2021 AL Cy Younger Award winner will get right into a bind early, Servais will probably have a fast hook together with his Opening Day starter.

Maybe Servais begins Gilbert in Recreation 2 retaining Ray on the prepared for a aid gig or to start out Recreation 3, if crucial. Whatever the path the seven-year skipper chooses, sturdy assist from the beginning employees will likely be important to the Mariners’ endurance through the 2022 postseason.

The bullpen has been a power for the Mariners all season. Based mostly on xwOBA it was second finest in MLB.

Finest Bullpen xwOBA
LAD – .274
SEA – .279
ATL – .279
HOU – .282
CLE – .286
NYY – .287
NYM – .288
SDP – .291
TBR – .294
MIL – .295

MLB common RP xwOBA = .302

Regardless of the nice total season numbers, the ultimate month of the 2022 marketing campaign was a bit bumpy for a number of relievers. Who can neglect the epic bullpen meltdown facilitating the Royals scoring 11 runs in a single inning on September 25?

To assist illustrate these latest struggles, I segregated every reliever’s xwOBA into two sections. The primary 5 months of the season after which September/October.

What we discover is the xwOBA of 4 Mariners regressed on the finish of the season (highlighted in purple). Having mentioned that, Erik Swanson and Penn Murfee have been nonetheless average-ish or higher. However, Paul Sewald and Matthew Festa encountered noticeable turbulence. Sewald’s difficulties are significantly worrisome contemplating he’s one of the priceless high-leverage arms in Servais’ bullpen.

Nonetheless, sturdy performances from Matt Brash, Chris Flexen, Andrés Muñoz, and even Diego Castillo within the closing month of the season are encouraging. In spite of everything, the success of the Mariners’ bullpen has been a collaborative effort in 2022. This “it takes a village” mentality will serve the workforce properly in Toronto.

Robust protection has been essential to the pitching employees’s success. However there have been uncharacteristic lapses within the discipline over the past month or so. Beginning tomorrow, this could not occur. Giving the opposition additional outs as a result of misplays normally results in early exits in playoff baseball. Particularly for a workforce just like the Mariners, which depends closely on run prevention to succeed.

The “unearned run” isn’t an excellent indicator of fielding proficiency because it’s based mostly on the flawed “error” stat. However the latest uptick of unearned runs does replicate the protection doldrums the Mariners endured over the ultimate month of the season.

M’s Unearned Runs
April – 12
Might – 5
June – 6
July – 3
Aug – 6
Sep/Oct – 14

Whereas the Mariners have struggled within the discipline recently, we shouldn’t lose sight of the actual fact the workforce’s defenders collectively ranked tenth in defensive runs saved (DRS) for the season. Remembering that zero DRS is taken into account league-average, Servais’ squad was common or higher at many defensive positions.

DRS of Notable M’s
C- Cal Raleigh (14)
1B – Ty France (2)
1B – Carlos Santana (4)*
2B – Adam Frazier (0)
SS – JP Crawford (-3)
3B – Eugenio Suarez (-2)
CF – Julio Rodriguez (3)
RF – Mitch Haniger (4)
RF – Jarred Kelenic (3)

*Consists of time with KCR

As you possibly can see, Seattle defenders have carried out comparatively properly. Nonetheless, 2020 Gold Glover J.P. Crawford has skilled a big slide from final season (8 DRS). Whether or not it is a long-term concern or simply an anomaly stays to be seen. Within the interim, sturdy shortstop protection from Crawford is a should within the postseason.

Based mostly on DRS, Cal Raleigh was third finest defender amongst catchers with 500-plus innings behind the plate this season. From a standard side, his 25 runners caught stealing was second finest within the majors behind Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto (30). Raleigh can also be thought-about a wonderful pitch framer and sport caller.

The DRS of Seattle’s principal outfielders seems good heading into the postseason. Not solely that, the arm power of Rodriguez is twelfth finest amongst 155 outfielders making at least 100 throws this season. Kelenic additionally grades out properly (thirty ninth) in comparison with his outfield friends.

One key defender to not be missed is Dylan Moore. The 30-year-old Swiss Military knife has frolicked all over the place on the diamond this season apart from pitcher and catcher. Moore’s versatility makes him an important postseason weapon able to beginning at a number of positions or serving as a late-inning defensive substitute.

So simple as it could sound, all that’s wanted from the Mariners to take pleasure in success in Toronto is a continuation of what they’ve performed all season. Take walks; hit dwelling runs; glorious pitching backed up by sturdy glove work.

Positive, it received’t be straightforward. The Blue Jays are an excellent workforce. Then once more, so are the Mariners. By cleanly executing on the weather of the sport that received them to the postseason, Servais’ squad can have a great opportunity at advancing to face the Astros within the ALDS.

Wouldn’t that be enjoyable?

My Oh My…