Home Sport News The numbers that simply don’t add up

The numbers that simply don’t add up

The numbers that simply don’t add up


Warren Buffet is alleged to have had enjoyable increasing a enterprise euphemism to learn ‘A rising tide floats all boats….. and solely when the tide goes out do you uncover who’s been swimming bare’.

Australian racing and particularly the evaluation of the category of the Australian (or nationalised) racehorses competing within the 2022 Cox Plate present a working example.

All Australian (or nationalised) horses within the race acquired score boosts of between 2 and 10 score factors for his or her final begin efficiency…..seemingly regardless of their efficiency.

That’s the very definition of a rising tide!

This has seen 8 of 12 rivals judged by Australia’s Worldwide Handicapper as class-worthy of a begin within the Arc De Triomophe or the Champion stakes within the UK. I can hear the abroad laughter from right here.

For context, Verry Elleegant (a winner of 8 Australian Group 1s) was given a decrease score for successful a Group 1 in 2021 than the present score of 8 Cox Plate runners….most of which have by no means gained an open age Group 1!

So how has this come about? Has there been a miraculous injection of sophistication within the 4 months VE has been on the worldwide catwalk? No.

Have all these horses climbed Mt Everest or jumped out of the bottom to set new benchmarks of efficiency? No. Have they been clocking up Group 1 win after Group 1 win? No. Are all of them younger untested horses on an upward spiral? Removed from it.

Is it a mirage – completely. How else do you clarify this ‘rising tide’ score phenomenon?

A deeper dive into these rankings reveals simply how nakedly distorted these assessments are.

Take Profondo for instance. It ran a effectively overwhelmed ninth final begin within the Set Weights and Penalties Turnbull stakes carrying 2.5kgs lower than WFA, but it’s score jumped from 106 to 116 (it’s highest ever score). In the identical race Maximal Younger Werther and Luncies competed.

Carrying the identical weight as Maximal and Younger Werther, Luncies was overwhelmed residence by lower than one size. It’s efficiency acquired a score of 97. (Keep in mind, it’s not a Cox plate starter). Then again, Cox Plate starters Maximal, Younger Werther and Profondo (which completed behind Luncies) got rankings of 112,112 & 116.

Is that this not Alice in Wonderland stuff?

This score differential is like saying that each one 3 might give Luncies a 50 metre head begin or carry 10kgs extra and nonetheless beat Luncies over 2000m…..which they clearly couldn’t!

Amongst the numerous different examples – let’s have a look at one other type line the place Tuvalu gained the Group 1 Toorak Handicap. It was awarded a score of 108 for that effort. Legal guidelines of Indices which runs within the Cox Plate ran 2nd to Tuvalu. His efficiency was rewarded with a elevate from 106 to 114 (6 greater than the winner Tuvalu).

You possibly can’t make these things up.

Then there may be the Verry Elleegant benchmark. When it gained the 2020 Caulfield Cup up in opposition to a powerful discipline, (that included an Epsom Derby winner) her efficiency was rated at 116.

Quick ahead to 2022 Caulfield Cup, an version that 99.9% of the inhabitants agreed was the poorest version they may bear in mind. Even the handicapper admitted as a lot when declaring weights for every runner. A high weight of 56.5kgs tells all.

Regardless of this, Gold Journey was awarded a score of 119 for working second! Instances recommend Verry Elleegant would have overwhelmed Gold Journey by 10 lengths (and sure observe rankings had been the identical).

Is it any marvel abroad jurisdictions have an incredible stomach chuckle once they have a look at our WFA ranks? Is it any marvel the French had been so fast to regulate Worldwide rankings as quickly as they bought an opportunity?

So why are these rankings so inflated for Cox Plate entrants? Effectively…it’s not the horses which have any hassle swimming bare, simply those that crave worldwide status.



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