The 2024 Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet


Join The Decision, a publication that includes our 2024 election protection.

Nobody alive has seen a race just like the 2024 presidential election. For months, if not years, many individuals have anticipated a reprise of the 2020 election, a matchup between the sitting president and a former president.

That didn’t stop a crowded major. On the GOP facet, greater than a dozen candidates introduced campaigns in opposition to Trump, however that’s down to only Nikki Haley. The previous president’s lead appeared prohibitive even earlier than his landslide victory within the Iowa caucuses, however no candidate has ever received his get together’s nomination whereas dealing with 4 (to date) separate felony indictments. (Then once more, nobody has ever misplaced his get together’s nomination whereas dealing with 4 separate felony indictments both.) Haley supplanted Ron DeSantis because the main challenger to Trump and compelled him out of the race, and she or he hopes to tug out a win in New Hampshire, however her path after that’s darkish.

On the opposite facet, Democratic hesitations a few second Joe Biden time period have largely dissolved into resignation that he’s operating, however Consultant Dean Phillips is making a last-ditch effort to supply a youthful various. Biden’s age and the widely lukewarm feeling amongst some voters have ensured {that a} shadow subject nonetheless lingers, simply ready in case Biden bows out for some motive.

Behind all of this, the potential for a severe third-party bid, led by both No Labels or another group, continues to loom; heterodox progressives Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are each operating as independents. It provides as much as a race that looks like a little bit of a circus on the floor however is steaming steadily towards a long-expected conclusion.This information to the candidates—who’s in, who’s out, and who’s someplace in between—serves as a street map to navigate that. Will probably be up to date because the marketing campaign develops, so test in often.


REPUBLICANS


donald trump
(Joe Raedle / Getty)

Donald Trump

Who’s he?
You understand him and you’re keen on him. Or hate him. Most likely not a lot in between.

Is he operating?
Sure. Trump introduced his bid to return to the White Home at Mar-a-Lago in November 2022.

Why does he need to run?
Revenge, boredom, rivalry, worry of prosecution, long-standing psychological hang-ups.

Who needs him to run?
A giant tranche of the GOP was all the time totally behind Trump, and as his rivals have failed to realize a lot traction, he is consolidated lots of the relaxation and constructed an all-but-prohibitive lead.

Can he win the nomination?
Sure, and he very doubtless will.

What else do we all know?
Greater than we might probably need to.


ron desantis
(Joe Raedle / Getty)

Ron DeSantis

Who’s he?
The second-term governor of Florida, DeSantis was beforehand a U.S. consultant.

Is he operating?
No. He dropped out on January 21, two days earlier than the New Hampshire major.

Why did he need to run?
DeSantis tried to synthesize Trump-style tradition warring and the conservative politics of the early-2010s Republican Get together, suggesting he’d be like Trump, solely extra so and extra successfully.

Who needed him to run?
In the long run, not many individuals. Although he was as soon as regarded as the favourite, he by no means discovered the right way to peel off Trump voters who appreciated the unique superb, and donors bored with his costly, directionless marketing campaign.

May he have received the nomination?
Perhaps a extra competent marketing campaign would have fared higher—it’s already been labeled the worst ever by some journalists and operatives—however DeSantis additionally revealed himself to be a slipshod and unappealing candidate, which is tough to beat.


nikki haley
(Roy Rochlin / Getty)

Nikki Haley

Who’s she?
Haley, the daughter of immigrants, was governor of South Carolina after which ambassador to the United Nations underneath Trump.

Is she operating?
Sure. She introduced her marketing campaign on February 14, saying, “Time for a brand new era.”

Why does she need to run?
Haley has tried to steer a path that distances herself from Trump—mentioning his unpopularity—with out brazenly attacking him. She can also be the highest foreign-policy hawk within the subject.

Who needs her to run?
As DeSantis fades, Haley has grow to be the most well-liked various to Trump, however she nonetheless lags far behind Trump himself nationally and in most key states.

Can she win the nomination?
Most likely not, however at this second she stands a greater probability than anybody else who isn’t Trump.


Vivek Ramaswamy
(Dylan Hollingsworth / Bloomberg / Getty)

Vivek Ramaswamy

Who’s he?
A 38-year-old biotech millionaire with a glowing résumé (Harvard, then Yale Legislation, the place he turned associates with Senator J. D. Vance), Ramaswamy has just lately grow to be outstanding as a crusader in opposition to “wokeism” and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing.

Is he operating?
No. He dropped out after a distant end within the Iowa caucuses.

Why did he need to run?
Ramaswamy ran as an anti-woke candidate, however because the marketing campaign developed, he gave the impression to be someplace between a stalking horse for Trump and a person auditioning for roles in a second Trump administration.

Who needed him to run?
The paradigmatic Ramaswamy voter appeared to like Trump’s vibe however be prepared for a brand new model. He had a summer season surge when he was contemporary, but it surely subsided as individuals have gotten to know and—like his Republican rivals—dislike him.

May he have received the nomination?
No. Ramaswamy broke out of the ranks of oddballs to briefly grow to be a mildly formidable contender, however the extra voters noticed him, the much less they appreciated his slick shtick and questionable pronouncements.


asa hutchinson
(Alex Wong / Getty)

Asa Hutchinson

Who’s he?
Hutchinson, a former longtime member of Congress, simply completed a stint as governor of Arkansas.

Is he operating?
No. He caught round even after lacking debates, however he lastly dropped out on January 16.

Why does he need to run?
Hutchinson—as soon as thought of a right-wing Republican—discovered himself nearer to the get together’s middle within the Trump period. Like Chris Christie, he made opposition to Trump central to his marketing campaign, however with a milder tone. That didn’t work any higher than Christie’s bombastic anti-Trumpism.

Who needed him to run?
Previous-school, very conservative Republicans who additionally detest Trump.

May he have received the nomination?
No.


tim scott
(David Becker / The Washington Put up / Getty)

Tim Scott

Who’s he?
A South Carolinian, Scott is the one Black Republican senator.

Is he operating?
No. He mentioned on November 12 that he was suspending his marketing campaign.

Why did he need to run?
This was by no means solely clear. Scott supplied a considerably sunny private story but additionally some hard-line ideas.

Who needs him to run?
Scott’s Senate colleagues adore him, and voters’ views of him had been favorable, however he by no means translated that into actual assist.

Can he win the nomination?
No. He might by no means discover a approach out of the second tier of candidates.


mike pence
(Megan Varner / Getty)

Mike Pence

Who’s he?
The previous vice chairman, he additionally served because the governor of Indiana and a U.S. consultant.

Is he operating?
No! He shocked a Las Vegas viewers by dropping out on October 28. He’d been operating since June 7.

Why did he need to run?
Pence has lengthy harbored White Home desires, and he has a robust conservative-Christian political agenda. Because the marketing campaign went on, he slowly started to develop a sharper critique of Trump whereas nonetheless awkwardly celebrating the accomplishments of the administration by which he served.

Who needed him to run?
Conservative Christians and rabbit lovers, however not very many individuals total.

May he have received the nomination?
It wasn’t within the playing cards.


Chris Christie
(Ida Mae Astute / Getty)

Chris Christie

Who’s he?
What a journey this man has had, from U.S. lawyer to revered governor of New Jersey to traffic-jam laughingstock to Trump sidekick to Trump critic. Whew.

Is he operating?
No. He introduced on January 10 that he was dropping out, sooner or later after calling New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu a “liar” for saying that his marketing campaign was almost over.

Why did he need to run?
By the top of his marketing campaign, Chris Christie had turned himself into essentially the most anti-Trump candidate within the race—calling the previous president out, with names and with rhetoric, and insisting he shouldn’t be the GOP nominee. In truth, that got here to be Christie’s solely actual identification as a candidate.

Who needed him to run?
Trump-skeptical donors, liberal pundits. However by the top, even some Trump critics had been pressuring him to drop out to be able to permit the non-Trump vote to consolidate.

May he have received the nomination?
No staunchly anti-Trump candidate might win in Trump’s Republican Get together.


Doug Burgum
(Todd Williamson / Getty)

Doug Burgum

Who’s he?
Do you even take note of politics? Nah, simply kidding. A self-made software program billionaire, Burgum is serving his second time period because the governor of North Dakota.

Is he operating?
No extra. Burgum suspended his marketing campaign on December 4. He’d kicked it off on June 7 in Fargo.

Why did he need to run?
Vainness? Boredom? Noble however doomed impulses? Who is aware of. His campaign-announcement video focuses a lot on North Dakota that it appeared extra like a reelection push. He informed a state newspaper that he thinks the “silent majority” of Individuals needs candidates who aren’t on the extremes. (A rich outsider concentrating on the silent majority? The place have we heard that earlier than?) He additionally really wants extra home oil manufacturing.

Who needed him to run?
Virtually nobody. He needed to give people $20 gift cards to get them to donate to his marketing campaign so he might qualify for debates.

May he have received the nomination?
“There’s a worth to being underestimated on a regular basis,” he has mentioned. Because it seems, the naysayers estimated precisely.


Will Hurd
(Scott Olson / Getty)

Will Hurd

Who’s he?
A former CIA officer, Hurd served three phrases within the Home, representing a San Antonio–space district.

Is he operating?
No. Hurd, who announced his marketing campaign on June 22, dropped out on October 9 and endorsed Nikki Haley.

Why did he need to run?
Hurd mentioned he had “commonsense” concepts and was “pissed” that elected officers are dividing Individuals. He’s additionally been an outspoken Trump critic.

Who needed him to run?
As a average, youngish Black Republican and somebody who cares about protection, he’s the form of candidate whom the get together institution appeared to want after the now-discarded 2012 GOP autopsy.

May he have received the nomination?
No.


Francis Suarez
(Mandel Ngan / Getty)

Francis Suarez

Who’s he?
Suarez is the favored second-term mayor of Miami and the president of the U.S. Convention of Mayors.

Is he operating?
No. He suspended his marketing campaign on August 29, lower than three months after his June 15 entry.

Why did he need to run?
Suarez touted his youth—he’s 45—and said in October 2022, “I’m somebody who believes in a constructive aspirational message. I’m somebody who has a observe document of success and a formulation for fulfillment.”

Who needed him to run?
Is there actually room for one more moderate-ish Republican within the race? Apparently not! Regardless of dabbling in fundraising shenanigans, Suarez didn’t make the primary Republican debate (or every other splash).

May he have received the nomination?
No approach.


larry hogan
(Drew Angerer / Getty)

Larry Hogan

Who’s he?
Hogan left workplace this 12 months, after serving two phrases as governor of Maryland.

Is he operating?
¯_(ツ)_/¯. Hogan dominated himself out of the GOP race on March 5, saying he was frightened it will assist Trump win the nomination, and he endorsed Nikki Haley earlier than the Iowa caucus. However he’s additionally rumored as a possible No Labels candidate, although such a run may hand the presidency to … Trump.

Why does he need to run?
Hogan has argued that his expertise of governing a really blue state as a Republican is a mannequin: “We’ve been actually profitable outdoors of Washington, the place every little thing seems to be damaged and nothing however divisiveness and dysfunction.”

Who needs him to run?
Lifeless-ender centrists.

May he win the nomination?
No.


chris sununu
(John Locher / AP)

Chris Sununu

Who’s he?
The governor of New Hampshire, he’s the little brother of former Senator John E. Sununu and the son of former White Home Chief of Workers John H. Sununu.

Is he operating?
No. On June 5, after weighing a marketing campaign, he introduced that he wouldn’t run. Warning in regards to the risks of a Trump reprise, he mentioned, “Each candidate wants to know the duty of getting out and getting out rapidly if it’s not working.” Factors for taking his personal recommendation!

Why did he need to run?
Sununu appears disgusted by quite a lot of Washington politics and noticed his success in New Hampshire, a purple-blue state, as a mannequin for small-government conservatism. He’s additionally a outstanding Trump critic.

Who needed him to run?
Trump-skeptical Republicans, old-school conservatives.

May he have received the nomination?
No.


mike pompeo
(Scott Olson / Getty)

Mike Pompeo

Who’s he?
Pompeo, a former member of Congress, led the CIA and was secretary of state underneath Trump.

Is he operating?
No. On April 14, Pompeo introduced that he wasn’t operating. “This isn’t that point or that second for me to hunt elected workplace once more,” he mentioned.

Why did he need to run?
Pompeo has all the time been bold, and he appears to assume he can mix MAGA proximity with a hawkish foreign-policy method.

Who needed him to run?
That’s not solely clear.

May he have received the nomination?
Perhaps, however most likely not.


glenn youngkin
(Misha Friedman / Getty)

Glenn Youngkin

Who’s he?
Youngkin, the previous CEO of the private-equity Carlyle Group, was elected governor of Virginia in 2021.

Is he operating?
No. He spent a lot of 2023 refusing to categorically rule out a race however not fairly committing. As Ron DeSantis’s Trump-alternative glow dimmed, Youngkin gave the impression to be hoping that Republican success in off-year Virginia legislative elections would give him a lift. After Democrats received management of each the state’s legislative chambers, nonetheless, he mentioned he was “not going anywhere.”

Why did he need to run?
Youngkin is a little bit of a cipher; he ran for governor largely on schooling points, and has sought to tighten abortion legal guidelines in Virginia, however the legislative defeat makes that unlikely.

Who needed him to run?
Rupert Murdoch, reportedly, in addition to different rich, business-friendly Republican figures.

May he have received the nomination?
Definitely not with out operating, and nearly actually not if he did.


Mike Rogers
(Sam Wolfe / Bloomberg / Getty)

Mike Rogers

Who’s he?
Rogers is a congressman from Alabam—wait, no, sorry, that’s the different Consultant Mike Rogers. This one is from Michigan and retired in 2015. He was beforehand an FBI agent and was head of the Intelligence Committee whereas on Capitol Hill.

Is he operating?
No. He thought about it however announced in late August that he would run for U.S. Senate as an alternative.

Why did he need to run?
He laid out some unassailably broad concepts for a marketing campaign in an interview with Fox News, together with a give attention to innovation and civic schooling, but it surely’s exhausting to inform what precisely the aim is right here. “This isn’t an arrogance challenge for me,” he added, which, okay, positive.

Who needed him to run?
It’s not clear that anybody even observed he was operating.

May he have received the nomination?
Nope.


Larry Elder
(Todd Williamson / Getty)

Larry Elder

Who’s he?
A longtime conservative radio host and columnist, he ran as a Republican within the unsuccessful 2021 try to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Is he operating?
Not anymore. Elder introduced his marketing campaign on Tucker Carlson’s Fox Information present on April 20, however then disappeared with out a hint. On October 27, he dropped out and endorsed Trump.

Why did he need to run?
Glad you requested! “America is in decline, however this decline isn’t inevitable,” he tweeted. “We will enter a brand new American Golden Age, however we should select a pacesetter who can deliver us there. That’s why I’m operating for President.” We don’t have any thought what which means both.

Who needed him to run?
Virtually nobody.

May he have received the nomination?
Completely not.


Rick Perry
(Todd Williamson / Getty)

Rick Perry

Who’s he?
Perry was a three-term governor of Texas earlier than serving as vitality secretary underneath Donald Trump. He’s additionally run for president thrice: in 2012, 2016, and … I forget the third one. Oops.

Is he operating?
Oh, proper! The third one is 2024, perhaps. He told CNN in May that he’s considering a run. Nothing’s been heard since. We’ll say no.

Why did he need to run?
He didn’t say, however he’s struggled to articulate a lot of a compelling case to Republican voters past the truth that he’s from Texas, he appears to be like good in a swimsuit, and he needs to be president, gosh darn it.

Who needed him to run?
Most likely nobody. As Mike Pompeo already found, there wasn’t a lot of a marketplace for a run-of-the-mill former Trump Cupboard member within the major—particularly one who had such a forgettable flip as secretary, largely remembered for being dragged peripherally into each the primary Trump impeachment and election subversion.

May he have received the nomination?
The third time wouldn’t have been a attraction.


Rick Scott
(Joe Raedle / Getty)

Rick Scott

Who’s he?
Earlier than his present gig as a U.S. senator from Florida, Scott was governor and chief government of a health-care firm that committed massive Medicare fraud.

Is he operating?
The New York Occasions says he’s considering it, although an aide mentioned Scott is operating for reelection to the Senate. He’d be the fourth Floridian within the race.

Why does he need to run?
A Scott marketing campaign would elevate a captivating query: What when you took Trump’s pose and beliefs however eliminated all of the charisma and, as an alternative of promising to guard common entitlement packages, aimed to demolish them?

Who needs him to run?
Not Mitch McConnell.

Can he win the nomination?
lol


DEMOCRATS


Joe Biden
(Joshua Roberts / Getty)

Joe Biden

Who’s he?
After a long time of attempting, Biden is the president of america.

Is he operating?
Sure. Biden formally announced his run on April 25.

Why does he need to run?
Biden’s slogan is seemingly “Let’s end the job.” He centered his launch video on the theme of freedom, however underlying all of that is his obvious perception that he would be the solely one who can defeat Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup.

Who needs him to run?
There’s the catch. Some outstanding Democrats assist his bid for a second time period, however voters have consistently informed pollsters that they don’t need him to run once more.

Can he win the nomination?
Barring unexpected disaster, sure. No incumbent president has misplaced the nomination within the fashionable period, and Biden has pushed by modifications to the Democratic-primary course of that make him an much more prohibitive favourite.

What else do we all know?
Biden is already the oldest particular person to be elected president and to function president, so a second time period would set extra information.


Cenk Uygur
(Joshua Roberts / Getty)

Cenk Uygur

Who’s he?
A pundit from the get together’s left flank, Uygur might be finest know for his The Younger Turks community. He was briefly an MSNBC character and likewise ran for Congress in California in 2020.

Is he operating?
Apparently. He announced his plans on October 11.

Why does he need to run?
Uygur believes that Biden will lose the 2024 election and thus needs to power him to withdraw. “I’m going to do no matter I can to assist him determine that this isn’t the suitable path,” he told Semafor’s Dave Weigel. “If he retires now, he’s a hero: He beat Trump, he did job of being a steward of the financial system. If he doesn’t, he loses to Trump, and he’s the villain of the story.”

Who needs him to run?
We’ll see if anybody does. Uygur has a large viewers—his YouTube channel has tens of millions of subscribers—however that doesn’t imply he has any actual presidential constituency.

Can he win the nomination?
No, and he has a deeper downside: He’s ineligible to serve, as a result of he was born in Turkey. This isn’t an attention-grabbing nuance of the legislation, as with misguided questions on Ted Cruz’s or John McCain’s eligibility, or disinformation, as with Barack Obama. Uygur is simply not a natural-born citizen. He claims he’ll take the matter to the Supreme Court docket and win in a “slam dunk.” As Biden would say, if he had been keen to provide Uygur any consideration: Lots of luck in your senior year.


Dean Phillips
(Invoice Clark / Getty)

Dean Phillips

Who’s he?
Phillips, a mildly unorthodox and interesting figure, is a Minnesota average serving his third time period within the Home.

Is he operating?
Sure. He launched his marketing campaign October 27 in New Hampshire. That follows a Hamlet act to make Mario Cuomo proud—in July, he said he was considering it; in August, he mentioned he was unlikely to run however would encourage different Democrats to take action; then, after discovering no different Democrats keen to run, he said he was not ruling it out.

Why does he need to run?
In an in-depth profile by my colleague Tim Alberta, Phillips mentioned he’s most involved about beating Trump. “Look, simply because [Biden’s] previous, that’s not a disqualifier,” Phillips mentioned. “However being previous, in decline, and having numbers which can be clearly shifting within the fallacious path? It’s attending to red-alert type of stuff.” He added: “Somebody had to do that. It simply was so self-evident.”

Who needs him to run?
Phillips told Alberta that even some Biden allies privately inspired him to run—however nobody will say it brazenly. Although many Democrats really feel Biden is just too previous, that doesn’t imply that they’re keen to brazenly again a challenger, particularly a little-known one, or that Phillips can overcome the structural obstacles to beating an incumbent in a major. There’s a motive Phillips couldn’t draft one other Democrat to run.

Can he win the nomination?
Virtually actually not in 2024—even when Biden leaves the race.

What else do we all know?
His grandmother was “Pricey Abby,” and he made a fortune operating the Talenti gelato firm.


kamala harris
(Chip Somodevilla / Getty)

Kamala Harris

Who’s she?
Harris is the vice chairman of america.

Is she operating?
No, but when Biden had been to bow out, she’d be the rapid favourite.

Why does she need to run?
One downside along with her 2020 presidential marketing campaign was the shortage of a transparent reply to this query. Maybe operating on the Biden-Harris legacy would assist fill within the clean.

Who needs her to run?
Some Democrats are excited in regards to the prospect of nominating a girl of colour, however usually Harris’s struggles as a candidate and in defining a task for herself (within the admittedly unattainable place of VP) have resulted in nervousness about her as a standard-bearer.

Can she win the nomination?
Not proper now.


Pete Buttigieg
(Matthew Cavanaugh / Getty)

Pete Buttigieg

Who’s he?
Mayor Pete is Secretary Pete now, overseeing the Division of Transportation.

Is he operating?
No, however he would even be a possible candidate if Biden stepped away.

Why does he need to run?
Simply as he was 4 years in the past, Buttigieg is a younger, bold politician with a average, technocratic imaginative and prescient of presidency.

Who needs him to run?
Buttigieg’s followers are passionate, and Biden confirmed that moderates stay a power within the get together.

Can he win the nomination?
Not at this second.


Bernie Sanders
(Scott Olson / Getty)

Bernie Sanders

Who’s he?
The senator from Vermont is changeless, ageless, ever the identical.

Is he operating?
No, but when Biden dropped out, it’s exhausting to consider he wouldn’t significantly think about one other go. A top adviser even says so.

Why does he need to run?
Sanders nonetheless needs to tax billionaires, stage the financial taking part in subject, and push a left-wing platform.

Who needs him to run?
Sanders continues to have the robust assist of a big portion of the Democratic citizens, particularly youthful voters.

Can he win the nomination?
Two consecutive tries have proven that he’s formidable, however can’t shut. Perhaps the third time’s the attraction?


Gretchen Whitmer
(Chip Somodevilla / Getty)

Gretchen Whitmer

Who’s she?
Whitmer cruised to a second time period as governor of Michigan in 2022.

Is she operating?
No.

Why would she need to run?
It’s a little bit early to know, however her reelection marketing campaign targeted on abortion rights.

Who needs her to run?
Whitmer would test quite a lot of bins for Democrats. She’s a contemporary face, she’s a girl, and she or he’s proved she will win within the higher Midwest in opposition to a MAGA candidate.

Can she win the nomination?
Not if she isn’t operating.


Marianne Williamson
(Lucas Jackson / Reuters)

Marianne Williamson

Who’s she?
When you don’t know Williamson from her common writing on spirituality, you then certainly keep in mind her considerably woo-woo Democratic bid in 2020.

Is she operating?
Supposedly. Williamson introduced her marketing campaign on March 4 in D.C., however the one peeps from her have involved staff turnover.

Why does she need to run?
“It’s our job to create a imaginative and prescient of justice and love that’s so highly effective that it’ll override the forces of hatred and injustice and worry,” she said at her marketing campaign launch. She has additionally said that she needs to provide voters a selection: “The query I ask myself isn’t ‘What’s my path to victory?’ My query is ‘What’s my path to radical truth-telling?’ There are some issues that have to be mentioned on this nation.”

Who needs her to run?
Williamson has her followers, however she doesn’t have a transparent political constituency.

Can she win the nomination?
Nah.


J.B. Pritzker
(Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune / Getty)

J. B. Pritzker

Who’s he?
The governor of Illinois is each a scion of a rich household and a “nomadic warrior.”

Is he operating?
No.

Why does he need to run?
After years of unfulfilled curiosity in elected workplace, Pritzker has established himself as a muscular proponent of progressivism in a Democratic stronghold.

Who needs him to run?
Improbably for a billionaire, Pritzker has grow to be a darling of the Sanders-style left, in addition to a memelord.

Can he win the nomination?
Not now.


THIRD-PARTY AND INDEPENDENT


Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
(Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune / Getty)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Who’s he?
The son of a presidential candidate, the nephew of one other, and the nephew of a president, Kennedy is a longtime environmental activist and likewise a chronic crank.

Is he operating?
Sure. He announced his run for the Democratic nomination on April 19, however on October 9 he dropped out of that race to run as an unbiased.

Why does he need to run?
Operating for president is a household custom. His marketing campaign is organized round his esoteric mixture of left-wing pursuits (the setting, drug costs) and right-wing causes (vaccine skepticism, anger about social-media “deplatforming”), however tending toward extremely dark places.

Who needs him to run?
Quickly after he introduced his marketing campaign, Kennedy reached double digits in polls in opposition to Biden—an indication of dissatisfaction with the president and of Kennedy’s identify recognition. It has since grow to be clear that Democratic voters usually are not concerned about anti-Semitic kookery, although another fringe components could be.

What are his prospects?
It’s potential, if unlikely, that Kennedy might play a severe spoiler function by drawing sufficient votes from both Trump or Biden in key states to swing the election. The quick reply is no one knows what may occur, however he very properly might boost the president’s chances.


Joe Manchin
(Tom Williams / Getty)

Joe Manchin

Who’s he?
A Democratic U.S. senator and former governor of West Virginia, he was the pivotal centrist vote for the primary two years of Joe Biden’s time period.

Is he operating?
It’s exhausting to inform how severe he’s. Manchin has been courted by No Labels, the nonpartisan centrist group, to hold its banner, and on November 9, Manchin introduced that he wouldn’t run for reelection to the Senate in 2024, forgoing what would have been the hardest race of his profession. His announcement advised some curiosity in a third-party bid: “What I can be doing is touring the nation and talking out to see if there may be an curiosity in making a motion to mobilize the center and produce Individuals collectively.” (He by no means made any noises a few Democratic major marketing campaign, and wouldn’t have fared properly.)

Why does he need to run?
Some mixture of true perception and umbrage. I’ve described him as “a middle-of-the-road man with good electoral instincts, first rate intentions, and dangerous concepts,” however he additionally periodically seems personally piqued at Biden and the Democrats over slights perceived or actual.

Who needs him to run?
No Labels would like to have somebody like him, a high-profile determine who’s keen to buck his get together and has insurance policies that may attraction to voters from both get together. It’s exhausting to think about that he’d have a lot of an natural base of assist, however Democrats are terrified that he’d siphon off sufficient votes handy Trump or one other Republican the win in a three-way race.

What are his prospects?
“Make no mistake, I’ll win any race I enter,” he said in April. If that’s true, don’t anticipate to see him within the presidential race.


Cornel West
(Frederick M. Brown / Getty)

Cornel West

Who’s he?
West is a thinker, a theologian, a professor, a preacher, a gadfly, a progressive activist, an actor, a spoken-word recording artist, an writer … and we’re most likely lacking a couple of.

Is he operating?
Sure. He announced his marketing campaign on the Folks’s Get together ticket on June 5. Quickly thereafter he switched to the Inexperienced Get together, which could have gotten him the most effective poll entry. However as of October, he’s running as an independent.

Why does he need to run?
“In these bleak occasions, I’ve determined to run for reality and justice, which takes the type of operating for president of america,” he said in his announcement video. West is a fierce leftist who has described Trump as a “neofascist” and Biden as a “milquetoast neoliberal.”

Who needs him to run?
West was a high-profile backer of Bernie Sanders, and it’s simple to think about him successful over a few of Sanders’s fervent followers. Now that he’s operating as an unbiased, he’ll doubtless have bother constructing a base of his personal.

What are his prospects?
Let’s hear from Brother West: “Do now we have what it takes? We will see,” he mentioned. “However a few of us are going to go down combating, go down swinging, with model and a smile.”


Jill Stein
(Alex Wong / Getty)

Jill Stein

Who’s she?
Here’s what I wrote in 2016: “A Massachusetts resident and doctor, she is a candidate of almost Stassen-like frequency, having run for president in 2012 and a slew of different places of work earlier than that.”

Is she operating?
So it appears. Now that Cornel West’s marketing campaign (which she briefly managed, no matter which means) has dropped out of competition for the Inexperienced Get together nomination, she has filed to run on the Green line.

Why does she need to run?
Although she hasn’t laid out a platform but, you may get a good sense of what her marketing campaign is prone to appear to be from her 2016 issues: a fairly commonplace leftist give attention to social justice, the setting, and peace. Her weird comments after the 2016 election make one suspect that self-importance performs a task, too.

Who needs her to run?
The Inexperienced Get together has a small however constant batch of voters and poll entry in lots of states. It’s additionally clear who doesn’t need her to run: Democrats who worry that a fair midway efficient Inexperienced candidate will price Joe Biden simply sufficient votes to lose in key swing states. (For the document, the case that she price Hillary Clinton the 2016 race is shaky.)

What are her prospects?
Since she’s the closest factor the Greens need to a confirmed amount, she ought to be in a robust place for the nomination. After which what? Perhaps voters’ dread of a Biden-Trump rematch will drive some non-Greens to her. Or perhaps they are going to largely be over her.


Liz Cheney
(Gary Gershoff / Getty)

Liz Cheney

Who’s she?
The scion of a rock-ribbed Republican household in Wyoming, she served in Home GOP management earlier than breaking with Trump and dropping her 2022 major.

Is she operating?
Perhaps. “A number of years in the past, I might not have contemplated a third-party run,” Cheney told The Washington Post on December 4, however now she says she is reconsidering.

Why does she need to run?
She says she’s going to do “no matter it takes” to deprive Trump of a second time period. It can also’t harm to tease a marketing campaign whenever you’re launching a brand new e book, as she is.

Who needs her to run?
As a lifelong conservative, Cheney would draw the assist of many By no means Trump Republicans. As a result of she has grow to be an unlikely resistance hero, she may also appeal to independents and even Democrats who detest Trump however aren’t sizzling on Biden.

What are her prospects?
Cheney wouldn’t win, however that presumably isn’t her aim. Whether or not she’d do a lot to harm Trump is one other query. The optimistic case for her is that she’d draw Republican votes however, not like a No Labels or Jill Stein or Cornel West marketing campaign, not lower into Biden’s margin. Which will or is probably not true.


This text initially misidentified the governor of New Hampshire as John, not Chris, Sununu.



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