What Function Might Cade Marlowe Play With The Mariners?





Seattle Mariners prospect Cade Marlowe had an amazing yr. A lot so, the workforce unexpectedly added him to its postseason taxi squad. Naturally, this stunning growth has some followers considering Marlowe may play a serious function with the Mariners in 2023.

Marlowe making a splash as a Mariner is the excellent news story we’d all wish to see unfold. Nonetheless, we should always resist hoisting unrealistic expectations on the 25-year-old.

However the stats!

For a section of Mariners followers, Marlowe’s 2022 offensive numbers have them satisfied he generally is a difference-maker in 2023. The Georgia native hit 21 doubles and 23 house runs with a .287 AVG/.377 OBP/.487 SLG slash line in 578 plate appearances with Class-AA Arkansas and Class-AAA Tacoma. Spectacular manufacturing, though I’ve reservations.

Let’s face it, nice minor-league stats gained’t essentially result in MLB success. Seattle followers can attest to this after witnessing the difficulties Jarred Kelenic has encountered. Kelenic was a top-five MLB prospect and an excellent run producer within the minors. However in 558 plate appearances over two seasons with the Mariners, the Wisconsin native has a .168 AVG/.251 OBP/.338 SLG with 18 doubles and 21 house runs.

Now, contemplate the similarities between Kelenic’s profession MiLB manufacturing and Marlowe’s. Maybe you now perceive why I haven’t jumped on the hype practice.

Cade Marlowe & Jarred Kelenic MiLB Numbers
Marlowe
Kelenic
G
301
289
PA
1318
1288
AB
1140
1140
2B
61
82
3B
18
15
HR
52
56
SB
76
50
BB%
11.3
9.8
SO%
26.6
20.6
AVG
.285
.295
OBP
.373
.369
SLG
.507
.540
OPS
.880
.909

I’m not suggesting Marlowe is doomed to stumble. However the Kelenic saga ought to remind us it’s “patrons beware” relating to assessing minor-league manufacturing numbers. That stated, there’s one Marlowe stat value discussing.

Strikeouts

At each stage, Marlowe has posted a excessive strikeout fee. His profession fee is 26.6%, which is 4 % larger than this yr’s MLB common.

Marlowe’s Profession SO% 
2019 (A-) – 24.7%
2021 (A) – 25%
2021 (A+) – 28%
2022 (AA) – 25.7%
2022 (AAA)** – 38.3%

** Solely 60 plate appearances

Realistically, there’s no technique to predict how a lot a minor-leaguer’s strikeout fee will improve as soon as he reaches the large leagues. However out of curiosity, I in contrast the MiLB and MLB strikeout charges of Rookie of the Yr vote-getters relationship again to 2018.

Maybe Marlowe won’t ever be thought of a high rookie. However performing this train may present a measure of perspective when contemplating the University of West Georgia alum’s outlook with the Mariners.

All informed, our group consists of 49 place gamers. The common improve in strikeout fee between the minors and majors was 4.2%. Six had a minor-league strikeout fee just like Marlowe’s. Let’s have a look.

Fernando Tatis Jr. was the best hitter. Though he strikes out typically, Tatis wields an influence bat and has a powerful .369 OBP since debuting in 2019. The 2-time Silver Slugger additionally boasts an excellent 160 OPS+.

On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) is a normalized model of OPS that adjusts for park and league situations. OPS+ is scaled so 100 is at all times league-average. Consequently, an OPS+ of 150 means a hitter was 50-percent extra productive than the common participant. An 80 OPS+ could be 20-percent under common.

The one different participant demonstrating a knack for reaching base is former Mariner Kyle Lewis. In 130 video games and 526 plate appearances, Lewis has a .329 OBP and a 112 OPS+. Sadly, accidents have stalled the 2020 AL Rookie of the Yr’s profession. Now a member of the Diamondbacks, Lewis might be seeking to rebound subsequent yr. I’ll be rooting for him to succeed.

The remaining gamers have been productive to various levels due to the ability of their bats. This yr, Rangers middle fielder Adolis García hit 34 doubles and 27 house runs with a 113 OPS+ regardless of a .300 OBP. Equally, Patrick Wisdom (.298 OBP) of the Cubs delivered pop (28 doubles, 25 house runs).

Daniel Palka completed fifth in 2018 AL Rookie of the Yr voting with 15 doubles, 27 house runs, and a .294 OBP. Palka performed 30 video games the next season, however hasn’t appeared in MLB since. In 2022, the 31-year-old was a member of the Mets’ AAA affiliate.

A a lot youthful Oneil Cruz falls into the “too quickly to inform” class. In simply 87 video games with the Pirates this yr, the 24-year-old hit 13 doubles and 17 house runs with a .294 OBP.

It’s believable Marlowe’s rookie strikeout fee approaches 30%, which could possibly be problematic. Then once more, there are notable productive hitters with a excessive strikeout fee: Tatis and García, plus Eugenio Suárez (31.2%), Byron Buxton (30.4%), Giancarlo Stanton (30.3%), and Kyle Schwarber (29.9%).

Nonetheless, a large variety of gamers close to or above the 30% threshold in 2022 weren’t productive.

Twenty-nine hitters with 350-plus plate appearances had a strikeout fee of 28% or larger this yr. 13 had an OPS+ higher the MLB-average. Which group Marlowe would fall into probably hinges on how his extra-base energy and on-base potential interprets to the large leagues.

Lastly

There’s quite a bit to love about Marlowe. He’s demonstrated energy regardless of enjoying in a pitcher’s park. Plus, the previous 20th round decide is a proficient base stealer and able to enjoying any outfield place. That stated, Prospect Insider and MLB Pipeline solely initiatives him to be a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Nonetheless, an clever participant with a robust work ethic – like Marlowe – can doubtlessly change his trajectory by making the fitting changes. Personally, that’s what I’m rooting for.

Cade Marlowe turning into the most effective model of himself.

My Oh My…

 

Due to Joe Fann for planting the seed for this piece in my head.

 

 

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Luke Arkins

Luke is a local New Yorker, who grew up as a Mets fan. After the US Navy moved him to the Pacific Northwest in 2009, he determined to make Seattle his house.

In 2014, Luke joined the Prospect Insider workforce. Throughout baseball season, he can typically be discovered observing the native workforce at T-Cell Park.

You’ll be able to comply with Luke on Twitter @luke_arkins

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