The best way to emerge a hero from the stress of a World Cup penalty shootout


The best way to take a penalty, and easy methods to save one? With the World Cup’s knockout levels beginning on Saturday, these questions might determine who wins the trophy. On the 2018 match, 4 video games within the knockout rounds had been tied after 120 minutes and received on penalty shoot-outs. This time, some groups have ready higher than ever. Others haven’t.

The very first thing to know is how your opponents shoot. Broadly, each kicker has to reply one query: do you wait till the keeper strikes? Croatia’s Luka Modrić does. He runs up slowly, head raised, watching the keeper for the slightest indication — even a lifted heel — of which approach he’ll transfer. At that cue, Modrić faucets the ball the opposite approach. He has transformed 21 of his 24 profession penalties, or 88 per cent, in line with Transfermarkt. The football-wide conversion price has dropped over the previous decade from 82 per cent to about 75 per cent, in all probability as a result of information evaluation helps groups decrypt opposing kickers.

A keeper going through Modrić — or Poland’s Robert Lewandowski — will wish to keep motionless so long as potential. That labored for Uruguay’s Sergio Rochet towards Ghana on Friday: unfooled by André Ayew’s gradual strategy, he selected the fitting nook, serving to ship Uruguay via to the knockouts on the Ghanaians’ expense.

England’s chief penalty-taker Harry Kane requires a unique technique, as a result of he doesn’t watch the keeper. His former membership coach José Mourinho as soon as mentioned: “Harry decides . . . a number of days earlier than the sport how he’s going to take it after which spends three or 4 days earlier than the sport practising that shot and I simply love that.” Kane varies the path of his penalties effectively, so a keeper should choose a aspect roughly randomly, and dive immediately. Good luck: Kane’s conversion price is 85 per cent.

Lesser kickers typically waver between Kane’s technique and Modrić’s. One instance is France’s Antoine Griezmann, who has missed 5 of his final seven spot-kicks.

Italy’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma saves a penalty taken by England’s Bukayo Saka in the Euro 2020 final at Wembley
Italy’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma saves a penalty taken by England’s Bukayo Saka within the Euro 2020 ultimate at Wembley © Paul ellis/AFP/Getty Photos

Argentina’s Lionel Messi additionally has a flaw in his strategy that can be obvious to analysts who examine sequences relatively than merely counting what number of penalties are positioned through which nook: he seldom repeats his final kick. Final week Messi scored to the Saudi keeper’s proper, then hit a well-struck shot to the left of Poland’s Wojciech Szczęsny, who saved. The world’s greatest footballer has a distinctly common profession penalty conversion price of 77 per cent, in line with Transfermarkt. His rival, Portugal’s Cristiano “Penaldo” Ronaldo, is six share factors higher.

However these are specialists, and in shoot-outs a crew should select 5 kickers. Gamers who by no means usually take penalties all of a sudden discover themselves making the lengthy, lonely stroll to take the kick of a lifetime. Below excessive stress, few dare wait ice-cold for the keeper’s transfer. As an alternative, inexperienced kickers are likely to hit the best penalty: a drive to their “pure aspect”, which for a right-footed kicker means proper of the keeper. The historic conversion price in World Cup shoot-outs is simply 70.3 per cent, calculates data provider Opta.

The Dutch have nominated considered one of their three keepers as their designated “penalty killer”, however received’t reveal who it’s. If it isn’t starter Andries Noppert, coach Louis van Gaal would possibly convey on the specialist simply earlier than the shootout, as he did with Tim Krul on the World Cup in 2014 towards Costa Rica. Krul stood towering over every opposing kicker, trash-talking him, and the Dutch received.

That was a case of a keeper’s aura intimidating opponents. One beneficiary from that in Qatar is perhaps Switzerland’s Yann Sommer, who has graduated from common penalty-stopper to penalty-killer: since September 2019 he has saved 5 of the 11 he confronted in all competitions.

England have suffered extra penalty anguish than maybe any nation besides Spain. When Gareth Southgate turned their supervisor in 2016, that they had misplaced 5 straight shoot-outs. Southgate — who himself missed England’s decisive kick within the Euro 1996 semi-final towards Germany — has tried to recreate the complete atmosphere of shoot-outs in coaching classes. His males have additionally been taught a key statistic, writes Paul Hayward in England Soccer: The Biography. “Gamers who take a gradual run-up rating 80 per cent of the time, whereas those that run in quicker convert solely 60 per cent.” 

Southgate has eliminated some duty from his gamers by selecting England’s kickers himself. That banishes the spectacle of a supervisor begging exhausted, pressured gamers to have a go, as Spain’s coach Fernando Hierro did towards Russia in 2018. Ahead Diego Costa was caught by TV cameras warning not to decide on Koke. Hierro insisted: “Koke is nice.” After the midfielder missed and Russia received, Costa growled, “I advised you.”

Managerial alternative additionally stops incompetent penalty-takers, corresponding to England’s Raheem Sterling, from counterproductively volunteering themselves. Southgate’s crew did beat Colombia on penalties on the final World Cup. However homework can’t assure success: England misplaced the ultimate of Euro 2020 on penalties, maybe awed by the dimensions and shot-stopping brilliance of Italy’s 6ft 5in goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.

Luck issues in shoot-outs. However to paraphrase the golfer Arnold Palmer, the extra groups put together, the luckier they have a tendency to get.

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