Farm system state, rankings course of beginning

As I’ve shared on varied social media platforms and within the Baseball Issues Slack just lately, we might have a brand new No. 2 prospect when my rankings are printed in February.

Whereas Dominican shortstop Felnin Celesten doesn’t but depend and isn’t a part of my present course of, he might be in these rankings after he indicators in January. However the “new No. 2” I’m speaking about isn’t Celesten.

That, nonetheless, isn’t the true story at this level in a course of I began this week. What’s the story, then?

Earlier than I get to that, let me share the most recent High 10 in my rankings:

  1. Harry Ford, C
  2. Bryce Miller, RHP
  3. Emerson Hancock, RHP
  4. Axel Sanchez, SS
  5. Michael Arroyo, 2B/3B
  6. Cole Young, SS
  7. Lazaro Montes, OF
  8. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF
  9. Walter Ford, RHP
  10. Bryan Woo, RHP

You see that High 3 up there? Ford, Miller, Hancock? There’s a legit shot none of them are my No. 1 or No. 2 prospect in two months. Sure, Celesten is likely one of the causes. Are you able to guess the opposite?

The System is Void of Premium Prospects

It’s true. The Mariners’ farm system lacks the excessive upside, excessive likelihood, shut proximity prospects which have littered the High 10 in recent times with names equivalent to Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. It’s void of premium prospects.

Nevertheless it’s not void of premium expertise.

The membership has achieved an excellent job including high-upside expertise the previous few years, regardless of the very fact so a lot of their greatest younger gamers are already within the majors. It’s simply that the overwhelming majority of stated gamers stay early of their improvement.

Rodriguez, Kirby, Gilbert, Cal Raleigh, and Jarred Kelenic carried Future Worth grades within the 50s and 60s, which means common to plus gamers, with all of them arriving within the majors with an opportunity to be all-stars.

The present High 10 (and past)? Sure, a handful posses the identical form of upside. They’re simply a lot additional away from each the majors, and reaching that form of potential, and enter 2023 with much more danger they ever get there than the aforemention group over the previous few years.

Harry Ford, a possible plus catcher with 55-60 velocity, 55-60 energy and a median or higher hit device, has the ceiling of a J.T. Realmuto and my favourite comp for him is Russell Martin. He may additionally find yourself at third base and be extra of an Alex Bregman. He additionally might by no means get anyplace close to there, and that’s the danger half. The likelihood is low as a result of he’s 19-years-old and fewer than two years into his professional profession.

Similar goes for Montes, who has big-time uncooked energy, however has an extended swing, swings and miss loads, and should find yourself at first base the place there might be much more strain to hit a ton. He simply turned 18, although, and his skilled expertise is all of 223 plate appearances within the Dominican Summer season League (DSL). If he maxes out in most areas, he’s Fred McGriff, Ryan Howard, or at the least Jeromy Burnitz. However the flooring could be very a lot ‘not a big-league participant in any respect,” and that’s the distinction.

Sanchez is one other with moderately big-time upside. Final summer time I known as him a poor-man’s Javier Baez. He’s athletic, tasks to stay at shortstop, and has some bodily instruments at 20 that recommend a significant leaguer, together with sufficient bat velocity to hit for some energy.

However he has lots of work to do to reply hit device questions, not all that in contrast to Montes, a typical theme within the decrease minors.

The Mariners do have a number of prospects nearer to the majors in Miller and Hancock, however proper now neither owns what the business would sometimes tag as excessive ceilings.

The membership’s farm is about to be restocked

Not solely is Seattle set so as to add Celesten, a switch-hitting shortstop who is likely one of the prime Lat Am prospects on this cycle, however the 2023 Draft will provide Seattle alternatives so as to add high-ceiling skills, in addition to people who enter professional ball inside three years of the massive leagues.

The Mariners at the moment personal picks 22, 29, and 30 and the ’23 class appears to be like like the very best in at the least 5 years, and definitely is extra balanced between upside, likelihood, arms and bats.

For those who’re curious whether or not the Mariners ought to intestine their present High 10 to land a Bryan Reynolds? The reply is sure. Extra farm assistance is on the best way.

Plus, it’s time to win, not construct farm depth.

My Private Too-Early High 10 Draft Prospects

  1. Chase Dollander, RHP — Tennessee
    The most effective pitching prospect within the draft since Gerrit Cole in 2010 and Stephen Strasburg in 2009.
  2. Dylan Crews, OF — LSU
    The draft’s greatest bat presents plus energy, endurance, effectively above-average contact charges, velocity, and an opportunity to be among the best defensive proper fielders in baseball.
  3. Max Clark, OF — Franklin Group
    Thebest prep participant within the draft and the bat with big upside and a sophisticated hit device.
  4. Wyatt Langford, OF — Florida
    Huge energy, plus velocity, and an opportunity to make an influence within two years.
  5. Jacob Gonzalez, SS — Ole Miss
    He might find yourself at third base, however he carries No. 1 choose upside if he continues to dominate within the SEC as a junior.
  6. Hurston Waldrep, RHP — Florida
    A possible four-pitch energy righty with good athleticism? Signal me up.
  7. Rhett Lowder, RHP — Wake Forest
    Command of his secondaries units him aside, and the physique tasks into frontline vary.
  8. Enrique Bradfield , OF — Vanderbilt
    The most effective true CF within the class with 70-grade velocity with a priojectable body and and an opportunity for common energy.
  9. Jacob Wilson, SS — Grand Canyon
    Wilson’s hit device is all the craze, and his bat-to-ball abilities are about nearly as good because it will get in beginner baseball. He’s in all probability a second baseman, however he might hit .320 with excessive OBPs aftter minimal time within the minors.
  10. Paul Skenes, RHP — LSU
    A prototypical body (6-6/235) with clear, repetable arm motion, big-time fastball worth and a shot at two 60-grade secondaries? Once more, signal me up.
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Jason A. Churchill

Churchill based Prospect Insider in 2006 and spent a number of years protecting prep, faculty and professional sports activities for varied newspapers, together with The Information Tribune and Seattle PI. Jason spent 4 1/2 years at ESPN and two years at CBS Radio.

Discover Jason’s baseball podcast, Baseball Issues, right here.

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